What's happening with Gold?

[Eric]

AUD gold has shot up a fair bit this last month? What are the experts' opinions on AUD gold in 2008/
Eric (Drake Sterling Numismatics)

[Paint Your Wagon]

In attached link you find gold in 9 different currencies
For the moment like in the song " The only way is up"
albeit with a short term peak between here and april

http://www.goldchartsrus.com/

[Paint Your Wagon]

Sofar I was right
We are now at 1000 US an ounce

The peak I referred to on january 5th should be the next two weeks with then probably a sharp short correction
At least that is my gaming plan

[EgCollector]

then probably a sharp short correction

Hi Paint Your Wagon, do you think that the "short correction" would be a good time for buying.
I want to invest in some gold coins but i dont know when would it be the right time.
Any suggestions.

[Paint Your Wagon]

First I only trust my own analysis since it is my own money

Godmode trader in Germany is ofthen right and they see 1230 $ without any meaningfull correction ; but that does nothing for me since I live in the Eurozonde
Site is german but look at the pretty computer forecast

http://www.godmode-trader.de/de/boerse-analyse/GOLD-geht-mit-1000-aus-der-Woche,a803430,c8.html

In the past 8 years I have had 7 cycles of 12 months and the 12 months are up this march ( short term top)
I have had one inversion which means an half cycle was added means 18 months total we could go an 18 months here god only knows
today

My secondary cycle is 107 days for 8 years now albeit with swings of like 25 days either way but the average unchanged in 8 years
This average of 107 days is up on today march 15 th

I have been selling papergold for the last two weeks and hope to continue the next week

Buying oportunities if they still exist should come in april-may-june but since I cannot see the form of the top I cannot see the form of the buying op

I may post my very personnel charts on the forum that is not visible for visitors which is that ?

[Paint Your Wagon]

then probably a sharp short correction

Hi Paint Your Wagon, do you think that the "short correction" would be a good time for buying.
I want to invest in some gold coins but i dont know when would it be the right time.
Any suggestions.

Use the averaging method buy 25% now and then 25% every of the following months
That is no reco only what I would do

[scottishmoney]

As for a correction, if indeed there is one, it would be in the neighbourhood of approximately 20% on the price, but that will be a result of profit taking on the part of mid to long term holders.  The big IF as it is, is the banking situation in the USA. 

Financial analysts are predicting approximately 100 banks will go under as a result of the sub-prime crisis.  But that can be a conservative estimate, and if there is a run on banks in the vicinity of what happened in 1933, the FDIC and FSLIC may not be able to cover and insure accounts, which could only snowball the problem.  This is why the Fed is lowering interest rates and pumping more money into banks to keep them liquid, but remember the US government is stretched fairly thin on expendable cash for rainy days right now, so if panic sets in on the part of account holders, lenders, etc. crisis may be swift and brutal.

Anyone with any amount of liquid assets is going to want to put it something more dependable than a bank, and maybe not even hold it in the USA to begin with.

[Paint Your Wagon]

My news service reported that for the first time in history 1 Suisse Franc was worth more then 1 dollar US wow

An autonomous country can print as much money as it wants ; see Zimbabwe they upgraded gold this week to show confidence
I think to 700 million dollar to the kilo gold

[EgCollector]

Paint your wagon, If i understood your words correctly. I should wait until the first of april to buy the first 25%, and continue buying 25% each month since then.

[EgCollector]

I may post my very personnel charts on the forum that is not visible for visitors which is that ?

that will be so nice of you, please do

[Paint Your Wagon]

Ok Monthly chart first
You will see the last 12 months cycles and one 18 month cycle
The bottom chart is called the slow stochastics indicator and everytime the blue line goes under the yellow line it is an alert and everytime both go below 80% the  red goes to white and the upside is over
You will see that last year there was a large upspike and a large downspike and up and up again Only one downmonth

At this moment it is impossible to say if we do not go for an 18 month again and if we do not spike further up the down will be more then a month
Today the minimum downside is 922 dollars an ounce which on the main upper chart is the first horizontal line of what is called a Fibonnaci retracement

Conclusion we have been red for a very long time and so I think the peak is this month of march

[Paint Your Wagon]

If we look at the chart on a Weekly basis we see the same thing
Red indicator for a long time but it can stay red for another six months

[Paint Your Wagon]

If we look at the daily chart we see 1040 would be possible next week but then time and space seem to be used up then
So the scenario I use for the moment is up max till the end of the month and then a correction unless we get another 6 months which is less likely

The blue lines are trend lines according Edwards and Magee a very old book but to me still the bible it is called Stock Trends and I have an old edition 5 but it is difficult to improve on the sheer simplicity so I never bought the later versions because I now make my own versions

[TwoShadows]

I will agree there should be an adjustment coming but I don't think it will be much of an adjustment. My dealer says quite a few collectors have already sold off their gold holdings but I must question why? The current rise has been a long time coming but, when I look back over the last 20 years I see NO reason not to buy precious metals. The folks who come to me to talk coins don't understand the concept of buying for the long term. They can put money into stocks, IRA's or 401K's weekly knowing it could be gone forever, or until they retire, but they expect precious metals to jump every 3 or 4 weeks so they can turn a profit? The very nature of this hobby is to buy and hold. We then must decide what kind of profit margin would warrant a sale!
My opinion and advise at this time to anyone wanting precious metal is to go ahead and do it as the future still looks bright. I like Paint Your Wagons designed purchases, so to speak, as it will provide various values at which he could take a profit in the future.
And last but not least, keep in mind where gold goes silver will follow. Having a little of both in your nest may be a good mix down the road.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I kind of decided to stop buying gold at 650 Euro an ounce and it is 640 E right now . This is a policy decisions without inforcement 
I expect like 60% increase to 1000 euro by 2011 latests ( 2250 $ mimimum )
At 1000 Euro I will start selling bullion coins without collectors value and put that money in Swisse Francs by want of anything better
I do not want to risk going down 2/3 like it did after 1980 for twenty years allthough Sinclair says this time it is different and that gold will stay high but not silver . I am not a silver specialist so silver at 50 E looks more then possible at 20 to a gold ounce where the historical has been 12 to 15 ounces of silver to a gold ounce .The reason why Silver will not stay up is purely technical Sinclair says silver is not money whilst gold is
cfr Breton Woods Gold Standard

Whatever happens I expect the daily swings to be horific and the weekly swings murdering . Like limit up or down in gold  a few days in a row coming to 200 dollar an ounce difference for the week . I forgot the limit is 50 or 75$ a day now .

I prepaired psychically by doing a weekly total by hand on millimeter paper and by decreasing the Y axis 
Doing this by hand forces awareness and looking at were you put the weekly point and reassures you that you are not going broke holding gold
I still do this in old Belgian francs and started with 20 000 to 10 millimeter then 25 000 to 10 millimiter then 50 000 to 10 millimiter and now 100 000 at 10 millimeter
If it goes down 100 000 in one week I only go down 10 millimeter on the paper and the visible impact is less ( one has to be able to sleep at night)
If I had staid with the original year 2000 charts I would fall of a sheet of millimeter paper one week and shoot up out of it a few weeks later since some weeks I am doing allready 5 inches of paper up or down at the original graph setting

The computer is a devious object here since it will allways squeeze the minimum and maximum on the screen be it 20 years or 6 months and so you loose all sense of dimention

[Paint Your Wagon]

Whatever happens I expect the daily swings to be horific and the weekly swings murdering

Well the peak is in and the murderous swing has started right on schedule .

Now we wait painfully hugging our computer screen despaying the worhtless pictures of nearly worthless coins   

As I expected the correction will be brutal and 840 gold is not out of the question . When my chrystal ball clears from abuse I may see more

[scottishmoney]

I think $800 gold is not out of the question.  Frankly it was due for a correction, even a dramatic one like a 5% drop in one day.  Notice that silver is falling even more precipitously.  There is chaos in all markets, commodities, securities, stocks etc.

But like all corrections, it will be offset later on.

[Paint Your Wagon]

On the goldforum I can say what I think since nobody believes me anyway

I bought Anglogold today and am looking at a correction that will not stop before april 1st , we may have the classical abc form down which means a false upmove any day now as b wave but some shares may be weeks ahead like Anglogold

Time and slow stochastics are more important then price

So I do not know where gold will go but as a working hypotesis I will take after april 1st with monthly stochastics 6,3,3, at 60% or lower
and weekly and daily at 20% and 840 to 900 as possible bottom