Metal Prices

[Paint Your Wagon]

Thank you August. I'm glad you
and the others are still around. Is your
gold thread still here? That was always
good reading.

well I had two or three intertwined threads going
Money de Paris and other mints
Ebay bloopers or finds
Gold coins more in general

I do not know which one or all three you refer to but I could post since I am now looking at what
selling prices I can get from my extra legal pension

At the beginning of the week I was disgusted to see that an 1831 Louis Philipe in VF was going less then goldprice on ebay
So I guess this is still a depressed price when even the bayers will not pay even goldprice for such an old coin
It goes now for 199 euro were gold price would be 202 euro
Sadly I paid it 10% over gold price at the time at a wopping 79 euro 

[longnine009]

Yes, the last few years have not
been kind to metals.   I stiil believe
PMs are going win   though. I just hope
it's not because of World War lll.

I bought some of the Zombucks that
Provident Metals was putting out. I got
in late, so I missed the early ones but I
really like them.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I edged my pension bets

I got coins that I can sell at melt since I have them for 15 years or so
And I got real collector coins in case there is a new gold craze

The last four years have been bad but it looks like gold is now bottoming finally and a wave 22 months
high is for next year . If we break out it is going to be fantastic .If not it is going to be another crying
in your pretzels year

[longnine009]

I really like David Stockman. He's quite
the Austrian School.

 http://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-deformation-of-american-capitalism/

[Paint Your Wagon]

I read and agreed with the reasoning of Dr Ravi Batra
The great depresson of 1990

This goes to show that timing is more important then being right
He may be right 50 years later

I work with 22 months cycles
As long as there is no new alltime high we are in a consolidation
Next opurtunity is next mid year

[Triggersmob]

August, I would be interest to hear your predictions for silver.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Silver is technically doing worse then gold
But is joinded at the hip with gold
Joined is a chart since 1999 my starting point for the gold and silver market
Silver is sitting in a range around its 10 year average and so is gold
But gold has a lot better MACD internal strength
So I think the next window of opportunity to sell silver is mid next year
If you want to buy you can do so right now
This is not a recommendation etc

[Paint Your Wagon]

As I am only confortable with prediction for gold
Gold will double in 18 months once it starts going again

[Triggersmob]

Thanks August. I bought silver a few years ago, when it was low. It then doubled in price, but I hung onto it, waiting for it to go higher, but it turned around and crashed. Hope your prediction is correct as I would like to sell soon.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I would not be amazed if silver did a lot more then just double
But everybody that got burned in this correction will be looking to sell
So if things get going I am going to sell into the mid next year high or twenty two months later

[SirStacksALot]

I think your last comment is "spot" on August.  It seems like it takes about two years to shake out people who are in it for short term gains.  That technical resistance from the short term buyers looking to make a quick gain will make a pretty stong ceiling.  I think we have too many sellers who bought at $22 to $25 two years ago, and more sellers who bought between $18 to $22 in 2014.  It would take a huge catalyst to plow through that resistance in the next year. 

I do believe that once it gets through $25 in a year or two it will peak around $80 and drop back around $32.  Total guess but anything could happen.   Long term it seems pretty cheap right now.  I don't think there will be any strong moves in the next year, unless inflation gets out of hand.

Just my thought, wrong or right, it really matters what happens in the world in the next few years.  Nobody can predict that.... but it is fun guessing.

[Paint Your Wagon]

If we do not see fireworks starting decembre january then it will be 2017 or 2018 before we possibly
will reach a usable peak to sell into

On silver Europe is mainly out since there is a consumer tax on it
In Belgium that tax is 21% in other countries it is between 18 and 22%
Silver is considered a consumable and not an investment in Europe
Count a 5 to 7 % spread between buy and sell and you understand there are very
few silverbugs in Europe

[Paint Your Wagon]

Today I got offered a 2016 Canadian coin at 114 euro that is 125 us dollar
Seems like the mints are all getting greedier by the year

http://smh.net/at/04209264-20-dollar-silber-das-universum-burke-gaffney-observatorium-pp.html


Click on the coin to enlarge

It would probably take 5 years if ever for melt to catch up with that price

[Triggersmob]

Today I got offered a 2016 Canadian coin at 114 euro that is 125 us dollar
Seems like the mints are all getting greedier by the year

http://smh.net/at/04209264-20-dollar-silber-das-universum-burke-gaffney-observatorium-pp.html


Click on the coin to enlarge

It would probably take 5 years if ever for melt to catch up with that price

Aussie silver coins are going the same way. Very much overpriced in my opinion.

[Paint Your Wagon]

They killed postage stamp collecting by getting like 100 new stamps a year per country and asking up to 3 time the price
and overproducing like hell

Coins are going the same way
An overproduction at too high prices and an expensive hobby instead of a pleasure and an investment

[Humpybong]

They killed postage stamp collecting by getting like 100 new stamps a year per country and asking up to 3 time the price
and overproducing like hell

Coins are going the same way
An overproduction at too high prices and an expensive hobby instead of a pleasure and an investment

I agree with that......most of the mints are only out to make money and they do not care about the collectors.....they just want you to keep buying.
I have stopped buying new issues and now just search for older issues at lower prices.

They don't call me a cheapskate for nothing......

[Paint Your Wagon]

I seem to remember that Monnaie de Paris has a 12 persons design team
and a 50 plus new coins a year program
To buyers from outside Europe there is a 21% discount on silver coins ( tax )
Vendors that have given a promise of taking X pieces of an issue get like 35% margin

I have bought all my coins substantially below offering prices on the secondary market
I stopped when they were making their standard coin a quarter ounce at the same facial value as the half ounces before

[Paint Your Wagon]

Attached is a coin from 1988 bought around 2005
12000 max with certificate and box
Monnaie de Paris
Bought on ebay germany because all french coins were cheaper in germany
Paid 9% below melt because the vendor had put no minimum

[Triggersmob]

Beautiful coin August and at less than melt. That's the way to do it.

[TKO]

August... I'm up for adoption if your interested. I don't eat much and I'm really no trouble. Let me know if your interested.   

[Humpybong]

Hey Terry.......join the end of the line.

 

[TKO]

I asked first!

[Paint Your Wagon]

Beautiful coin August and at less than melt. That's the way to do it.

I spend up to 4 hrs a day every day surfing ebay germany france Uk even spain italy and belgium
A german selling a french coin was often good for a low price and non french coins in france were good for a nice price
My ebay filter was 3 feet long
words like replica and 9mm etc got all the junk out
I think I stopped buying around 2009 2010 because it got more junkier by the year and I was never going to get the coins
I wanted at a decent price not even at 50% over melt
One coin I hunted for nearly 10 years was the ex wife of Napoleon Bonaparte Marie Louise who got a Duchee in Italy at Parma
In those 10 years I saw it once in MS and was the highest bidder
But the English pro running the sale just withdrew the coins and then secretly offered it to me at 5 times melt
I told him he was out of his mind and I would stick with the XF I had

[Paint Your Wagon]

There is a story attached to the Maria Luiga de Parma 40 lire coin

Parma is home to one of the best smoked hams in the world
It is said that for a long time the new importers of smoked ham got a coin at new year
and that therefore they are not in the hands of collectors but ham sellers who lost them
or do not realize what they got

I was offered the MS at 5 times melt 

[Paint Your Wagon]

August... I'm up for adoption if your interested. I don't eat much and I'm really no trouble. Let me know if your interested.   

Well I am sorry but I got 2 english cocker spaniels that share my bed and I have very good discussions with myself
never disagreeing for long and I agree with everything I am buying and eating

Also I have a preference for female candidates . In that way I am like Terry A but I have not to go bicycling to meet women
since some are cutting my hair and bringing me food and would do more if I let them to get into my will
I presume they are not doing it for my good looks.
Even my brother I never saw except for money now invites me to dinner
every 6 weeks 

[Triggersmob]

You keep the gold coins. I'll have the Cocker Spaniels.

[Paint Your Wagon]

You keep the gold coins. I'll have the Cocker Spaniels.

Ah never
They are both the most darling bitches you can imagine
one white and one chocolate
Ebony and Ivory

But I have to say you got a lot of good taste amigo

[dharmaeye]

I'm back and missed the banter.
Not buying much - Got a VG 1964 Kennedy and a couple of Canada 50 cent silver for less then melt last month.
Did buy some of the $20 for $20, quarter ounce Canadian coins for a while... To many issued.

My projection - in one year should be the bottom in PM's for many years.  Eight year cycle bottom.

This week should be extremely volatile in all stock markets.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I'm back and missed the banter.
Not buying much - Got a VG 1964 Kennedy and a couple of Canada 50 cent silver for less then melt last month.
Did buy some of the $20 for $20, quarter ounce Canadian coins for a while... To many issued.

My projection - in one year should be the bottom in PM's for many years.  Eight year cycle bottom.

This week should be extremely volatile in all stock markets.

I am sticking with the 22 months cycles which have a relative peak next 2016 midyear

In Euro gold is not doing so badly so I am selling enough to eat and drink

Seven pointed out that the monthly MACD is at zero and so is the histogram
So there are no buying forces nor selling forces for the moment which means we can turn on the head of a pin

[SirStacksALot]

August, It looks like your 2016 precious metals peak prediction might be right on track for midyear 2016 with the Brexit.  Any new thoughts on gold and silver?  My guess is that spot will jump a bit, and stay a while.  Looks like all of the markets might be in for a wild ride.

[Paint Your Wagon]

My latest prognoses for a gold peak has moved to oct nov
and that is the 21 -22 months peak so it should be nice
and then the next peak is 11 month later