Gold , coins , miners , timing

[whadda]

I guess this is why you are only suppose to trade 20% of your portfolio.

There is still a blackout on news about the Gulf spill. A no fly zone so no overhead pictures.

Maybe down to only a month and a half to go for some real action based on seasonality.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I finished my weekly stats
I am sure a big move is coming up or down
Some charts favor up but the total chart gold plus miners keeps crawling up for four weeks now with no volatility and that begs for a plunge
Next week should tell 

[OldDan]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/bp-bankruptcy-in-u-k-is-obama-s-worst-nightmare-caroline-baum.html

What would this do for the prices of gold???

[Paint Your Wagon]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/bp-bankruptcy-in-u-k-is-obama-s-worst-nightmare-caroline-baum.html

What would this do for the prices of gold???

The price of gold and the price of oil are loosely correlated
If the price of oil doubled because of the accident gold might rise
In the meantime gold is still the playtoy of investment banks and the paper gold futures market

[Paint Your Wagon]

Next week gold should shoot up till about wednesday or drop on monday
that is my highest probability short term two scenarios
( Either the gold high is in last monday or still coming )

Godmode traders HUI forecast seems to me too late in the cycle . I do not think we have that many days any more but my short term wealthlab formula gives HUI 525 though

[Paint Your Wagon]

Wealthlab total cyclic
Computer sticks to 111 day cycle and 19 days cycle
HUI 525,36 probable
( note this is the HUI and these are trading days ; whilst my cycles are on spot gold and 7 days a week )

[whadda]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/bp-bankruptcy-in-u-k-is-obama-s-worst-nightmare-caroline-baum.html

What would this do for the prices of gold???

Sinclair's site had an article, I think it was a past brokerage partner of his, said BP is to big to fail. Extends more credit to suppliers and subs than any bank could afford plus they actually have a backing in assets with natural resources versus bank that just have paper assets. Bankruptcy would send all GOM claims, supply chain vendors and sub contractors to the courts with Britain (taxpayers) having to foot the bill in the end. You can forget about any recovery for the British economy as they incur more debt.

Now health related issues are a concern to gulf residences exposed to nearby oil slicks. The fumes alone are potent carrying all the known chemicals derived from oil within them. The worst case scenario is you evacuate all coastal residents, as in, relocate them.  A think tank came up with a number, 44 million people.

The only thing really puzzling with mining sector is that volume has been light overall.

[OldDan]

The worst case scenario is you evacuate all coastal residents, as in, relocate them.  A think tank came up with a number, 44 million people.

That would sure reduce the price of beach-front property, wouldn't it

[Paint Your Wagon]

The Russians are allready dividing up America

http://beforeitsnews.com/news/87/087/The_Divided_States_of_America.html

[whadda]

Valentina Lisitsa

[Paint Your Wagon]

119 days and still counting ( 107 plus 17 missing makes 124 to be perfect )
I think we get a top anywhere between tuesday and friday

My german chart service choose exactly this weekend to "improve" charts from 5 to 10 years span and at the same time they went with gold from 7 days a week to 5 days a week
I have been tracking the 107 days cycle for 10 years based on 7 days a week now I will have to convert the chart to calendar days or my thinking to chartdays
107 calendardays = 78.47 weekdays on average 

[Paint Your Wagon]

This is one way to look at the charts of gold

[Paint Your Wagon]

This is my way
Smaller and smaller configurations with a resolution this week

[OldDan]

The Russians are allready dividing up America

Here is another plan that I like better:

Workable plan:

1) 'The US, UK , CANADA and  AUSTRALIA  will apologize to the world for our 'interference' in their affairs, past & present. You know, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Tojo, Noriega, Milosevic, Hussein, and the rest of those 'good 'ole' boys', we will never 'interfere' again.

2) We will withdraw our troops from all over the world, starting with  Germany,  South Korea , the Middle East, and the  Philippines . They don't want us there. We would station troops at our borders. No one allowed sneaking through holes in the fence.

3) All illegal aliens have 90 days to get their affairs together and leave. We'll give them a free trip home. After 90 days the remainder will be gathered up and deported immediately, regardless of whom or where they are from. They're illegal!!!  France  will welcome them.
4) All future visitors will be thoroughly checked and limited to 90 days unless given a special permit!!!! No one from a terrorist nation will be allowed in. If you don't like it there, change it yourself and don't hide here. Asylum would never be available to anyone. We don't need any more cab drivers or 7-11 cashiers.

5) No foreign 'students' over age 21. The older ones are the bombers. If they don't attend classes, they get a 'D' and it's back home baby.

 
6) The US, UK , CANADA and  AUSTRALIA  will make a strong effort to become self-sufficient energy wise. This will include developing nonpolluting sources of energy but will require a temporary drilling of oil in the Alaskan wilderness. The caribou will have to cope for a while..

7) Offer  Saudi Arabia  and other oil producing countries $10 a barrel for their oil. If they don't like it, we go someplace else. They can go somewhere else to sell their production. (About a week of the wells filling up the storage sites would be enough.)

If there is a famine or other natural catastrophe in the world, we will not 'interfere.' They can pray to Allah or whomever, for seeds, rain, cement or whatever they need. Besides most of what we give them is stolen or given to the army. The people who need it most get very little, if anything.

9) Ship the UN  Headquarters to an isolated island someplace. We don't need the spies and fair weather friends here. Besides, the building would make a good homeless shelter or lockup for illegal aliens..

10) All Americans must go to charm and beauty school. That way, no one can call us 'Ugly Americans' any longer. The Language we speak is ENGLISH...learn it...or LEAVE. Now, isn't that a winner of a plan?
'The Statue of  Liberty  is no longer saying 'Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses.' She's got a baseball bat and she's yelling, 'you want a piece of me?'

[Paint Your Wagon]

I read this morning that the US spends more on their army then all other nations combined
It would make sense to cut back and give some to Tarzan Schwarzy

In the meantime gold is playing pretty lady difficult to get to understand. 

[dharmaeye]

I read this morning that the US spends more on their army then all other nations combined
It would make sense to cut back and give some to Tarzan Schwarzy

In the meantime gold is playing pretty lady difficult to get to understand.  

That is the best way I've heard to describe gold LOL Luckly I was not sipping coffee at the time. A hormone commodity.
 
Nenner says a short term buy opportunity July 8.

[dharmaeye]

The Russians are allready dividing up America

Here is another plan that I like better:

Workable plan:

1) 'The US, UK , CANADA and  AUSTRALIA  will apologize to the world for our 'interference' in their affairs, past & present. You know, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Tojo, Noriega, Milosevic, Hussein, and the rest of those 'good 'ole' boys', we will never 'interfere' again.

2) We will withdraw our troops from all over the world, starting with  Germany,  South Korea , the Middle East, and the  Philippines . They don't want us there. We would station troops at our borders. No one allowed sneaking through holes in the fence.

3) All illegal aliens have 90 days to get their affairs together and leave. We'll give them a free trip home. After 90 days the remainder will be gathered up and deported immediately, regardless of whom or where they are from. They're illegal!!!  France  will welcome them.
4) All future visitors will be thoroughly checked and limited to 90 days unless given a special permit!!!! No one from a terrorist nation will be allowed in. If you don't like it there, change it yourself and don't hide here. Asylum would never be available to anyone. We don't need any more cab drivers or 7-11 cashiers.

5) No foreign 'students' over age 21. The older ones are the bombers. If they don't attend classes, they get a 'D' and it's back home baby.

 
6) The US, UK , CANADA and  AUSTRALIA  will make a strong effort to become self-sufficient energy wise. This will include developing nonpolluting sources of energy but will require a temporary drilling of oil in the Alaskan wilderness. The caribou will have to cope for a while..

7) Offer  Saudi Arabia  and other oil producing countries $10 a barrel for their oil. If they don't like it, we go someplace else. They can go somewhere else to sell their production. (About a week of the wells filling up the storage sites would be enough.)

If there is a famine or other natural catastrophe in the world, we will not 'interfere.' They can pray to Allah or whomever, for seeds, rain, cement or whatever they need. Besides most of what we give them is stolen or given to the army. The people who need it most get very little, if anything.

9) Ship the UN  Headquarters to an isolated island someplace. We don't need the spies and fair weather friends here. Besides, the building would make a good homeless shelter or lockup for illegal aliens..

10) All Americans must go to charm and beauty school. That way, no one can call us 'Ugly Americans' any longer. The Language we speak is ENGLISH...learn it...or LEAVE. Now, isn't that a winner of a plan?
'The Statue of  Liberty  is no longer saying 'Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses.' She's got a baseball bat and she's yelling, 'you want a piece of me?'

The only renewable energy source that outputs more then is input is geothermal.
Things have not changed over the last untold 1000's of years. Colonialism always occurs in one way or another.
Canada's interference tends to be just policing and they usually have more Canadian soldiers killed proportionally then any one else. Incompetent, political,  drunken  military management.
Canada send more oil to USA than any other country X2 now. Its mostly tar sands (actually better described as coal sands) source. If USA does not want it China... will.
If you came to Calgary you would be surprised how American it is, major difference is cleaner.
Things are evolving as they must and it likely will reduce the world population by half over the next several decades.
Be prepared - I was a boy scout in my youth.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I read this morning that the US spends more on their army then all other nations combined
It would make sense to cut back and give some to Tarzan Schwarzy

In the meantime gold is playing pretty lady difficult to get to understand.  

That is the best way I've heard to describe gold LOL Luckly I was not sipping coffee at the time. A hormone commodity.
 
Nenner says a short term buy opportunity July 8.

Wealthlab gives me a 19 days cycle if you count yesterday as a "high" then you come to july 8 .

I will wait to see what the slow stoch with setting 10.3.3 does. If it goes to 20% I will call 21 june the high and wait for a low on 17.3.3 or 27.3.3 settings to buy miners 

Pretty lady dance for me, dance for me , all day long 

[Paint Your Wagon]

This is the ninth day gold is undecided
It is in a slim jim giving no indication of up or down
But normally it goes out upwards

[Paint Your Wagon]

I have decided that the high was on 21 st june on day 112 of a nominal 107 day cycle
We are now in day 11 of the new and last 2010 subcycle
The decision was made on basis of the slow stoch going below 50%

[Paint Your Wagon]

I was only a few hours before gold dropped 40$ and everybody saw the high was in

I think the low may be somewhere the next two weeks allready ( subject to chart confirmation )
In the meantime I watch the privateer p and f chart

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

[Paint Your Wagon]

Godmode trader said 1196.40 would be first  support and it was

[Paint Your Wagon]

Any football world cup fans around ?

I watched my first game
quarter final Holland against Brazil and got NOT disappointed . I had
full expected Brazil to win , so it was an amazing match and Holland
with 2-1 kicked Brazil out of the game.
This is only the 19 th time the Brazilian International team ever loses

[Paint Your Wagon]

Miners on a 21 day short cycle
Next two weeks could allready be buying opps
I will slip slide in over several weeks ; the same way I slip slided out with mixed success
( too early on the South Africans and just right on the Canadians so on average not bad )

Allthough substantial part of my "lossses" are incurred by the euro going up against the cando 

[TwoShadows]

At this present time I feel like a gold miner/owner and as most of you know my wife and I have parted ways. She got the gold and I got the shaft! Thats what she wanted and thats what I got!

[whadda]

I'm back in with less than 10% cash now when my low ball bids hit, basically gaps fills. Norcini called this one correctly so far at support $1200. Probably bought in early as usual but I'll be happy to sit through consolidation. Hopefully that will happen without further corrections.

Miners haven't really haven't done anything long term, still getting ripe. Spot holding here will help bottom lines out a lot.

All these temporary government fixes just draws out the inevitable conclusion.

I've been soldering in an upgrade kit for my Klipsch 5.1 Ultra sub, about 20 items (resistors, caps, etc.) and a fan for the hot spot. If I only knew what I was doing would help a lot. But it works as my neighbors can attest to that fact.

[Paint Your Wagon]

At this present time I feel like a gold miner/owner and as most of you know my wife and I have parted ways. She got the gold and I got the shaft! Thats what she wanted and thats what I got!

My gold is in bank safes and my wife does not know the codes nor the safe numbers.
She is not even interested what we got .
As long as she can buy whatever she wants she is not interested were the money is or comes from . She is happy and I am happy 
I got the gold and the shaft 

[Paint Your Wagon]

I'm back in with less than 10% cash now when my low ball bids hit, basically gaps fills. Norcini called this one correctly so far at support $1200. Probably bought in early as usual but I'll be happy to sit through consolidation. Hopefully that will happen without further corrections.

Miners haven't really haven't done anything long term, still getting ripe. Spot holding here will help bottom lines out a lot.

All these temporary government fixes just draws out the inevitable conclusion.

I've been soldering in an upgrade kit for my Klipsch 5.1 Ultra sub, about 20 items (resistors, caps, etc.) and a fan for the hot spot. If I only knew what I was doing would help a lot. But it works as my neighbors can attest to that fact.

I have 17 % cash and my prelim wish-list is made Oceana ; NG ; Lake Shore; Anglo ;
and maybe Jinshan. Do you know what is wrong with Jinshan ? Falling like a brick on monthly stoch and oversold on weekly and daily timeframes .

[Paint Your Wagon]

Next week
First too into the water since on daily gold is oversold

[Paint Your Wagon]

From shorty on the stool
The end of rich americans ?

The final nail in the coffin of America will be pounded January 1st, after which the top 1% will realize that they pushed way too far, cannot turn back, cannot run, and cannot hide......they will randomly and individually begin paying the consequences for their actions. The idle unemployed masses may be dumbed down, but they're not totally stupid, they're angry, and quite a few of them will gleefully take up the new American pastime -- hunting the top 1% for sport. What an embarrassing way to go -- via estate gate-crashing blue-collar flash mobs on raw uncut 3-minute youtube videos.

In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on January 1, 2011

First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief

Personal income tax rates will rise.

Higher taxes on marriage and family.

The return of the Death Tax.

Higher tax rates on savers and investors.

Second Wave: Obamacare

There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare. Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:

The “Medicine Cabinet Tax”.

The “Special Needs Kids Tax”

The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike.

Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes

The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last year.

Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will disappear.

Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place. The biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.

Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of families.

Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed.

http://www.atr.org/sixmonths.html?content=5171

[OldDan]

From shorty on the stool
The end of rich americans ?

Money can't buy happiness -- but somehow it's more comfortable to cry in a Corvette than in a Yugo.. 

[TwoShadows]

   Well now that I know whats coming I am so thankful I don't have anything left! It may be time to dig in and I can still afford a shovel! At least I am safe hiding in this castle!

[Paint Your Wagon]

From shorty on the stool
The end of rich americans ?

Money can't buy happiness -- but somehow it's more comfortable to cry in a Corvette than in a Yugo.. 

In 1996 my last year with a merican multinational
There was a money donation campaign for invalids
A poster showed somebody in a wheelchair with the caption
" And yet it is more bearable with some money in the pocket"
However shocking this poster was ; I guess it was right .

[Paint Your Wagon]

   Well now that I know whats coming I am so thankful I don't have anything left! It may be time to dig in and I can still afford a shovel! At least I am safe hiding in this castle!

I hope you still got those guns 
If society breaks down you can shoot what you want 
How is the castle doing for food and water-supply ?

[dharmaeye]

Bookmark - daily updated - Celente for those brief moments of optimism.
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/07/tax-protests-tea-parties-riots.html

[dharmaeye]

At this present time I feel like a gold miner/owner and as most of you know my wife and I have parted ways. She got the gold and I got the shaft! Thats what she wanted and thats what I got!

Been their, done that. Have come to the conclusion that most women in times of affluence are incapable of commitment. Have expectations that they need to be worshiped/ the center of the universe for you, irrespective of reality. Also have a strong lemmings instinct - cliff jumpers.
Remember reading many decades ago about depressions having the most stable/ lowest times of divorce... because of necessity.
Suspect that this and many years to come will be a reality slap.

 

[whadda]

I'm back in with less than 10% cash now when my low ball bids hit, basically gaps fills. Norcini called this one correctly so far at support $1200. Probably bought in early as usual but I'll be happy to sit through consolidation. Hopefully that will happen without further corrections.

Miners haven't really haven't done anything long term, still getting ripe. Spot holding here will help bottom lines out a lot.

All these temporary government fixes just draws out the inevitable conclusion.

I've been soldering in an upgrade kit for my Klipsch 5.1 Ultra sub, about 20 items (resistors, caps, etc.) and a fan for the hot spot. If I only knew what I was doing would help a lot. But it works as my neighbors can attest to that fact.

I have 17 % cash and my prelim wish-list is made Oceana ; NG ; Lake Shore; Anglo ;
and maybe Jinshan. Do you know what is wrong with Jinshan ? Falling like a brick on monthly stoch and oversold on weekly and daily timeframes .

...Under the deal, China National Gold Group will acquire Ivanhoe's entire holding of 67.5 million shares in Jinshan at $3.1115 per share.

China National Gold will also issue a promissory note of $7.5 million by June 26, 2010, together with accrued interest at 12% from March 31 of this year....

Basically, as I read it, Jinshan doesn't have shit and the shit they do have is low grade. BTW, did you know China is a communist country? The market says its current value is such a price then that's what it's worth. So how can Rainy River be @ $6us already and no production, go figure.

RGLD was a precursor to this down move as it was getting beat up on unmercifully just prior. Waterfall event in spot needs a formation to form for a reading as it could go either up, down or sideways. Still trending up long term. Smart money in miners seems to be picking and choosing ignoring spot's threatening performance for the most part.

The real damaging tax is hidden in the devaluation of a currency. OTOH, taxes will be viewed upon as a good thing even as citizens must suffer/bare the cost of over spending by governments, to bad governments always spend more than they take in. ex. VAT, not only does it not ever go away, it increases.

At the store, packaging is getting larger and content amounts smaller but the price stays the same, is this deflation or inflation? Probably just marketing.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Thanks Whadda.

I use statistics like a card counter in a casino .
Today I am in day 14 of the new subcycle . The final cycle will center around 107 days plus 12 days I am still short . The cumulative % however will only be 50% at the highest point of probability. In English I have a 50% chance the high happens or HAS happened on 119 days
In the past 5 years ( 15 subcycles) the bottom has been 3 or 4 weeks after the top most of the time . So I will buy some next week and double the week after and so on .
For the moment I got too much yamana and not enough NG and NGD

August

[whadda]

NG and NGD are very good bets. They all will go up, some just faster than others. Your count works into an August run nicely.
If silver ever takes off don't forget HL.

[Paint Your Wagon]

NG and NGD are very good bets. They all will go up, some just faster than others. Your count works into an August run nicely.
If silver ever takes off don't forget HL.

The German anticyclic contra investor put NG on a partial sell signal
The south african miners are up this morning
If we are having an ABC down B could be starting today

[Paint Your Wagon]

Last year summer bottom was july 8
the indicators are allready around 50%

[Paint Your Wagon]

Daily is allready oversold

[Paint Your Wagon]

I bought a full position of Oceana gold 2.86 cad and 15% below what I sold it for
15% cash left

[whadda]

Your charts are screaming 'buy' aren't they? At least short term (days). NG NGD both up this morning, did the Germans mean sell the tops and buy the bottoms in NG? Oops, unreliable overseas quoting on my end.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Your charts are screaming 'buy' aren't they? At least short term (days). NG NGD both up this morning, did the Germans mean sell the tops and buy the bottoms in NG? Oops, unreliable overseas quoting on my end.

Many times in the past the cycle bottom has been week 3 or week 4 after the top of the previous cycle
We are now in the first day of week 3 . So slipsliding in is my option ; since I do not know how strong
or how week the miners are . I am looking at the 200 ema to buy shares and the 65 ema in the real strong
miners.

Kitco and the Germans have the same advise sell/hold for Novagold
http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/jun292010_juniors.html

[Paint Your Wagon]

Iceland is trying to jail its bankers

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hkg5VhwETJHWaiIqxwwj_PsHQ2Dg

[Paint Your Wagon]

The weekly charts have had their minimum reaction ( which can go on to oversold
but does not HAVE to )
Notice that several times the bottom was in week 3 ( the red figures are minus for the downweeks and plus for the upweeks in the subcycle )

[Paint Your Wagon]

Williams and CCI are allready down on weekly charts
Slow stoch only half way
Sinclair says to watch 8-15 july ( I guess that is the Bradley ?)

1160 is a 50% fibo and a resistance . If gold goes there I will buy with all my cash

There are nuts talking about gold 600 $ ( but they do not know that is now the average cost to mine it ; they are possibly paid to try and get somebody to hedge at todays 1190 )

[Paint Your Wagon]

Bought half NGD back 7% below yesterday and 17% below my sales price
at 5.66 cad
The hunt is on

[Paint Your Wagon]

Newsnoise
NGD being downgraded from Buy to Hold because of Problems in Mexico again
Did they forget to pay the necessary bakshees ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=NGD

http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFSGE6660GO20100707?rpc=44

[Paint Your Wagon]

Purloined from the stool

[whadda]

Wonder if you can get 'Fukitol" in IV drip bags?

[Paint Your Wagon]

Wonder if you can get 'Fukitol" in IV drip bags?

whiskey, rum, vodka, gin in a judicious combination will have the same effect .

Now all daily gold indicators have decided to start an up phase which may last 10 days
South Africans are up 2.5% this morning here
There is no guarantee the next 10 days down phase will give better prices although the weekly is still down

[Paint Your Wagon]

If at first you don't succeed you bump your head against the wall again and again until it crumbles

I bought another slice of NGD at 5.11 cad

I am going to nail that low even if it is ZERO

[whadda]

You might be early on NGD. They claim the Mexican version of the EPA and court decision affects 30% of the company's overall production output and they were/are in full production there. It will take time to resolve. It would have to drop to the $1.70 level for me to start losing money, doubt that's going to happen. You can just never tell what might happen in the mining world so not to put all your eggs in one basket.

The cup and handle chart that everyone was relying on turns out to be a weak pattern not your classic pattern. The longer spot holds above $1180 the more it is corrective and considered consolidation. Below that then more healing will be involved.

Miners today not acting together with some up most down. So I wait until August rolls around to see how strong a move up we get. Of course I was early on buying back in but a triggering event could occur at anytime so I'd rater be parked in miners and just wait it out.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I got 11 miners right now
Massively more then the 5 max I had in 1980
There is a 50 % cumulative chance the gold low is in end of next week at 1160 fibo and resistance .
I have 10% cash left .

[Paint Your Wagon]

Finally dharma has a different forecast then I do
He got a low oct/nov and I got an high 

I am very disappointed in Kinross
Will have to go in the next upswing

[whadda]

I'm going with Armstrong's next July for a top after a huge run up in spot and miners including all the pullbacks on the way up then a 6 month or so correction until wave 5 commences  and if no solutions are found to debt problems, that run can go to untold heights continuing through 2014.

Like BV and K wave rider, they get their turn dates correct but not the intensity of the move correct. In a bull the pull backs are limited in the down moves.

Nice play on NGD August, at least for the time being. Done that many times with NG, NGD and others when they are having short term problems.

dhrama never posts his work so I'm not sure what or who he is following or why. I'd put some channels up but Norcini does that for me lately. We are below the intermediate trend and need to return to the major channels. Should happen in August sometime after this consolidation. I'll be surprise if the $1080 area can be broken for more than a day or two now.

Just have to remember to sell the tops. I rarely sit out more than a couple of weeks but that's because I'm my own worst enemy.

[Paint Your Wagon]

All miners have slow stochs shooting up like corks out of the water
The bottom of the 21? day cycle is in and we go up for another 6 market days I guess.
(allready 4 over)
This is the third week in the 107 days cycle and it could be a bottom . I rate its chances at
50% now of it being a bottom.Otherwise it is in two weeks
My best buy seems Oceana up 5%+ sofar on the day
I will sit on 10 % cash now for a full week and that hurts my go get mentality

dharma changed his tune to say we are on the same page , what a reed in the wind.
( He says he is an astro follower)

For some or other reason my work and Armstrong still and allways differs about two months
I have a tentative high oct/nov .Take nov plus 11 months is oct next year
Take oct and 10 months (shortened cycles ) and I get august lol .
Depending on how steep we get I keep all options open with oct 2011 as target

I may sell end of next week something if I can get 15% net gain

[Paint Your Wagon]

Todays chart

[whadda]

I see Dharmaeye says he went to cash.  He might be early on the end of the month sell off or he knows something we don't in the short term.

[dharmaeye]

I see Dharmaeye says he went to cash.  He might be early on the end of the month sell off or he knows something we don't in the short term.

Thrashing over the next month or so.
Mid August buy for gold, end of Sept for XAU and Plat. These look like buy and Hold.

[Paint Your Wagon]

If next weeks rally is meaningfull I may be selling some more dogs and cats
Anglogold ; Kinross
and some overbought like
Tanzanian ; Oceana
and NGD if I get gains

I stick to my prediction that there is 50% chance the low is in for the year

[Paint Your Wagon]

Wealthlab total cyclic from Seven of Eleven
The low in HUI is in or close
short term 23 days cycle now ; long term back to 111 days cycle

[Paint Your Wagon]

Buying gold in the summer sales

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/7/Pages/Buying-Gold-in-the-Summer-Sales-.aspx

[whadda]

Armstrong talks about the DOW short term and some turn dates. Even he can't predict the direction for sure basically says if it goes up now then it goes down later vice versa.

The markets don't like uncertainly here in the States so if the Republicans take a majority in the House in November and possibly the Senate the market reaction should be down leading up to the elections.

Not to be confused with spot which continues a steady climb overall even with all the noise.   

[whadda]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZjMElBgrog&playnext_from=TL&videos=ssL5j7Fn2iA

[Paint Your Wagon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZjMElBgrog&playnext_from=TL&videos=ssL5j7Fn2iA

The Belgian group against pirating tried to shut down the Pirate Bay in Sweden by demanding that the court order the internet providers to block the Pirate Bay
The Judge in Commercial Court refused to hear the case 

[whadda]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZjMElBgrog&playnext_from=TL&videos=ssL5j7Fn2iA

The Belgian group against pirating tried to shut down the Pirate Bay in Sweden by demanding that the court order the internet providers to block the Pirate Bay
The Judge in Commercial Court refused to hear the case 

Glad to hear PB still survives, I know the owners got thrown in jail but I think they sold it to become millionaires. That judge must be pulling down movies in less than a hour with 2,000 seeders or more. Doesn't want to mess up a good thing.

[Paint Your Wagon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZjMElBgrog&playnext_from=TL&videos=ssL5j7Fn2iA

The Belgian group against pirating tried to shut down the Pirate Bay in Sweden by demanding that the court order the internet providers to block the Pirate Bay
The Judge in Commercial Court refused to hear the case 

Glad to hear PB still survives, I know the owners got thrown in jail but I think they sold it to become millionaires. That judge must be pulling down movies in less than a hour with 2,000 seeders or more. Doesn't want to mess up a good thing.

Fastest Belgian internet does really 500 to 525 kbps
A movie is about 30 minutes then

The Russians and of all things the Iranians are ready to take over
if the PB  would be taken of line

I got Filmnet paid for and I was amazed to see there is a new ( prequel) for Star Trek
and I liked it . They also broadcasted like 12 hours of the series FlasForwards in one daytime : that was too much for me so I taped it .

[Paint Your Wagon]

The British newspaper hat a good resume of Spain Holland worldcup

The Dutch kicked ( and got like 8 yellow cards and a red for their brutality) and the Spanish won 

For gold the up phase in the 21 day cycle just started and the 107 day cycle is trying to turn upwards . Whether we dip deeper or not after this is open . 1160 is still my resistance first line

[whadda]

Below $1160 and we enter a real correction. $2000 $1200 area trying to be a floor even with the heavy hitting on spot gold and silver prices.
Still acting like consolidation. Until a lower low is closed on around $1180 all this is noise.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Yep noise but more important , time .
If the high comes after 107 days plus change to make up for the lost days then time has
to go by to get an high .
Of course this kind of cycle does not give a low in time nor price .
Since the 10 days up phase of the 21 day cycle seems to be more sidewards then upwards
we are not out of the woods yet .
At the top of this cycle which coincides with a top in the South Africans I will be selling some more South Africans aka Harmony

[whadda]

Regular markets need to run up so it sets themselves up for a crash in the fall. Gold/miners just need to continue a steady climb into August for a launch. Been about a year in the lower channel for spot gold, a break up and out of the channel seems to be the tendency.

If Armstrong's foreseeing is correct then the only way to make money in the miners is trading the wild swings as it does a steady climb up in the years ahead (long term).

[Paint Your Wagon]

Trading only makes sense as long as we are not parabolic
Otherwise once out you will never find the courage to buy back 25% higher or more

However I am now rotating out of the first three stocks I owned since 1999
That are Anglogold, Harmony and Kinross which I bought as Echo bay

I will keep trading mostly to get out of some companies and into smaller ones

[Paint Your Wagon]

Europe just opened for business and is trying to push the goldprice up a few dollars

In the meantime China bought a Billion Euro bonds from Spain
( Right before the US tries to sell 10 year bonds today ; but we know they allways get
bought by "somebody" if need be with new electronic dollars )

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69eb723a-8df3-11df-9153-00144feab49a.html

[Paint Your Wagon]

Gold targets from the ennemy ( the big banks)

HVB US$ 1.350,--

Deutsche Bank UD$ 2.000,--



Bank of America/Merrill Lynch US$ 1,300,--

ERSTE Bank US$ 2.300,--

[whadda]

I see the Pound is under attack now. In the background I'm sure CDS bets have all been placed. Supposedly the US$ is next in line for a beating. I don't see any clear cut winner in a new fiat anywhere yet. Lots of talk but no one to trust with a new reserve currency.

Seems miners not acting quite right it today. Some penny stocks having higher percentage move than the bulk of them. Distribution? Then one more short term run up and another retest of the $1200 area before leaving it behind.

[Paint Your Wagon]

UK debt is ‘twice as much as we thought’
12 July 2010, 7:37am

The true scale of the national debt is £2 trillion – more than twice the official figure, an alarming study shows.

The black hole in the public accounts equates to £78,000 for every household in the country.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=508582&in_page_id=2&ito=1565

[Paint Your Wagon]

Hehe
One German forecaster says in the future a house will cost 5 to 10 ounces of gold.

A veteran investor asked whether that would be a shithouse, a doghouse or a birdhouse 

[whadda]

I can see where the manipulators have things firmly under control in this banking meltdown. Pass debt onto taxpayers. Move the debt dark cloud around slowly to each area of the world's continents. Extend debt payments out to future generations. Keep spot on a leash. A controlled melt down, if you will.

[Paint Your Wagon]

I sold half of my remaining Harmony this morning
The rest are at zero bookvalue ( free shares )
Back to 10% cash now

[Paint Your Wagon]

Oh I forgot
Today the French have their National "4th of July" type of holiday

Bastille Day
Allonz enfants de la patrie , le jour de gloire est arrivé.........

[TwoShadows]

There is ONE thing I like about that photo? Do you have her phone number?

[Paint Your Wagon]

There is ONE thing I like about that photo? Do you have her phone number?

That was before Napoleon I . So she is more then 200 year old 

[Paint Your Wagon]

@ dharmeye
Saw you got slapped on the fingers by allmighty DOC 
All the sheeple are lemmings of whatever sex ; they are going to bring us the parabolic blow off

Today is option expiration for gold july
I guess they will try for 1200 exact

I was eyeing two shares and they both went up 25% before I could buy   
Jinshan and Orvana

[OldDan]

The gold market, right now, kind of reminds me of sitting in a rocking-chair!

[Paint Your Wagon]

The gold market, right now, kind of reminds me of sitting in a rocking-chair!

Since the 107 day top was in a shakeout was to be foreseen . 1160 $ still is my probable low
The volatility is only going to get worse ; so better get a safety belt for that rocking chair 

[dharmaeye]

@ dharmeye
Saw you got slapped on the fingers by allmighty DOC 
All the sheeple are lemmings of whatever sex ; they are going to bring us the parabolic blow off

Today is option expiration for gold july
I guess they will try for 1200 exact

I was eyeing two shares and they both went up 25% before I could buy   
Jinshan and Orvana

Yeh, suppose I should have given equal time to males. Lot higher incidence of Psychopathy and mental disability for males. Used the term relatively in both cases.
Doc has not studied history and is very unusual for his religion in his attitudes. Not interested in a pissing match.
Gold 1066 sometime in the next year or so. May be as soon as mid August.
I'm in cash and physical period, right now.

[Paint Your Wagon]

@ dharmeye
Saw you got slapped on the fingers by allmighty DOC 
All the sheeple are lemmings of whatever sex ; they are going to bring us the parabolic blow off

Today is option expiration for gold july
I guess they will try for 1200 exact

I was eyeing two shares and they both went up 25% before I could buy   
Jinshan and Orvana

Yeh, suppose I should have given equal time to males. Lot higher incidence of Psychopathy and mental disability for males. Used the term relatively in both cases.
Doc has not studied history and is very unusual for his religion in his attitudes. Not interested in a pissing match.
Gold 1066 sometime in the next year or so. May be as soon as mid August.
I'm in cash and physical period, right now.

Doc is a money machine  unashamedly begging for donations
He does not want to have any potential subscriber offended be it somebody's dog
I lost several pen pals in the old days when he still was doing a booming subscription
Like Maximiser who got banned for saying volume in stocks is important
Doc did not want to hear that and banned him ; of course volume blow offs are important
I tried to stay in touch by private mail but people move on .

I will have to take out my Alf Field printouts again . When the summer bottom is in I only see higher dollar prices ; especially since I get the shaft from the candollar. My losses on candollar are about half of my total losses the last month. Procent wise my physical is doing 2.5 times worse then my miners calculated in euro for the last four weeks .

[Paint Your Wagon]

Golden Sack showing its own agenda by pushing miners to sell forward and hedge 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=108021&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[Paint Your Wagon]

Tanzanian is again nr 6 on the best list 
It was nr 1 for weeks and weeks on end way back

http://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/-104A?f=sic

[Paint Your Wagon]

HUI near real time Hurst this could be the bottom

[Paint Your Wagon]

Hurst dominancy , bottom close

[Paint Your Wagon]

My favorite total cyclic close to bottom
Note the cycle lengthened to 117 days 
I was short a little more then 10 days 

[dharmaeye]

Arch Crawford
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/07/astrologer-and-chartist-arch-crawford.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TrendsForecastsAndPropheciesBlog+%28Trends+Forecasts+and+Prophecies+Blog%29&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail

The Gulf BP thing.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/17_Matt_Simmons_files/Matt%20Simmons%207%3A17%3A2010.mp3

Could these be combined?

[Paint Your Wagon]

Wealth lab corrupted and replace the charts I posted
Back to Snagit I will have to go I guess

[Paint Your Wagon]

Ten days ago I bought some Leopold II Latin Union 20 BF coins
They arrived and all but one are MS64 or better ( one has an edge knick )

[Paint Your Wagon]

Why oh why is it always so that the miners I own go down and the ones
I want to buy go up ? 
Orvana, Kirkland, Osisko
Only Lake Shore which has been dead for 5 months stays dead .

Looks like I am going to get gold 1161 the 50 % Fibo number

[TwoShadows]

Its called Murphy's Law and the jerk has lived with me all my life!!! Seems you may have one of his relatives living with you in Belgium. Maybe I need to send mine to visit yours?