I think you're right--toning is just oxidation that's thin enough to interfere with light wavelengths. Simply put, there are two reflections--one off the coin metal and another off the top layer of the oxidation. The two reflections are slightly out of phase and cancel out specific wavelengths of light, producing a color effect. Eventually, when the oxidation gets thick enough, light cannot reflect off the base metal, the phase change is negligible, and the color of oxidation dominates.
Any toned (or bright silver or copper coin) can eventually go through this full process, which is why I'm skeptical on high prices put on toned coins that may entirely disappear (dealers hate me saying this, LOL). Of course, if you store your coins in a vacuum or noble gas, that might prolong the toning indefinitely!
