A primer in subprime economics or why you should buy silver or gold

[Paint Your Wagon]

The primer is made in 45 cartoons and takes a time to load but it is probably the easiest way to understand the problems
of the whole world allthough they choose a small town in a remote country as example

http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true

[longnine009]

I got up to cartoon 15 before bellsouth rolled over and died. I'm surprised they could even do that much.  Did any of the cartoons show the cartoon Ben throwing money out of a helicopter?

[Hermit]

No helicopters, but it didn't end well, Lol.

[longnine009]

My monitor is giving me a lot of trouble lately so I had to turn on the tv to get some news last night. Ole Ben was  on display  in front of the cons in congress and it was the first time I ever heard his voice. Does it always tremble like that?
 
Or does he just know that he's full of  expelled waste matter?   

[Paint Your Wagon]

I never  heard him either but whatever he does he is going to go down in history for all the mistakes his predecessor made
ole greenspung? like the green rot on copper it is deadly
Hyperinflation  is the less bad solution of all evils at this point
Total deflation or total anarchy or total bankrupcy of all institutions or WWIII are less desirable for most I think

[longnine009]

Silver closed today in N.Y at $19.81. Seems like it crossed $17 only a few weeks ago?

Ben made a bad choice. A country can recover from deflation without being destroyed from within, as, I belive, Japan will prove in a few more years.  Debasing our currency is just going to cause the world to switch to Euros that's all. And in the end inflation  may not work to save anything. 

Global-ism  encourages nations to debase currency so they can export more.  Falling wages encourage people to deal with higher prices  from inflation with credit or simply doing with out. In the U.S the credit card game is just about done. Doing without is next and that may lead to disinflation no matter how much money Ben throws out of the helicopter.
This is a consumer nation, as if that has any real value. None the less, people can and I think will, do without crap from walmart now that their credit cards are maxed out.

According to the Department of Homeland Hallucinations, we had   .6 of 1% GDP in the last quarter of 2007. Even if that's a truthful figure it's practically standing still.

But then spending 18 billion a month on the forever war against the boogie man  will just keep adding  more inflation.  IMO, we're looking at the worse of all worlds--stagflation and another king-stooge in the white house in 2009.   Or maybe a queen-stooge this time.
 

[Paint Your Wagon]

My mother had Billion Dmark notes in a drawer
at a time in Weimar Republic that bought you a loaf of bread afterwards NOT

But after 50 years the germans had the strongest economy in europe
You can survive inflation
I am not sure you can survive deflation cause the world comes to a standstill without a means of exchange

When I was fired for the second time my wife learned to do with 50% of what she could not do without
It suddenly turned out that haven your hair done weekly and haven 10 magazines weekly and having a manicure and pedicure
were less essential then having bread and drink and food and heating in winter
She even god forbid gave up buying a new set of clothes in fourfold every six months and for six years took the six months
old clothes of her sister for free . Most of which were never worn of course because seeing buying them is more important then
wearing them and you cannot wear three sets at the time .

I am very afraid big banks will fail and only the owners of factories will still have their factories
In short the rich with means of producing something will stay rich and they have their money in Switzerland anyways

[TwoShadows]

Seems to me, having been a victim, that corporations have found out eliminating jobs saves a ton of money when you replace those displaced with immigration rate wages. There are a lot of factors at play but, in my humble opinion, nothing is more critical than dealing with illegal immigrants and doing it very very quickly. There is much more being destroyed than just our wage scale so time is a wasting! I don't know what it will take to open Congress's greedy little rich eyes but something is going to have to happen soon.
Our nation would be much better served if the troops were on the southern border with the same live ammuntion! Its time to bury political correctness and do that which has to be done!

Now as for the banks? I have no compassion for them at all. Now if we can just get all the insurance companies, gas companies and lawyers to go under we could start on a health care system a family could afford again!!! You know the gas companies DO have to report profits publicly but how many of you know what your insurance company, doctor, lawyer or bank cleared in the last year? Suppose that would be according to what set of books you got to see?

My wife, due to the flu, had to see a doctor last week. The whole 3 minutes he was with her only cost $165.00? Throw in the cost of the medication, which is grossly overpriced but NOT by the manufacturer, but by the pharmacy who tacks on about 300% and we are at $250. Of course the price of gas and missing work just added more pain to her misery so we are looking at $400 plus for a doctor to tell her she had the flu? I could have done that for $10 but she probably would not have believed me!

[Paint Your Wagon]

In Belgium docs make homevisits
a visit would normally cost me 10 dollars out of pocket on a weekday during working hours
however they may if they decide so work for the state reimbursements and I convinced most that
if they do not choose for that option they will not enter a second time
My wife got fibromialgia so she needs a doctor daily cause nurses don't know how to put an injection
in somebody who got 6000 injections in the last 10 years
They are doing the inside upper legs now and talking about belly injections
The sitting part is like concrete , no needle will no longer penetrate it

The flue medication costs me like 8 dollars and it is the pharmacy half and factory half that gets the government money
Belgian doctors do not even get 8% of the healthcare budget so it  goes to bureaucrats and pharmacies and factories

I paid a fortune in compulsary taxes and state insurance but my wife is getting me even 

I have a personnal problem with what you say on your southern border ; we have the same problem and emotionally I agree but I have
come to think that if those people are willing to do the work for minimum wages and are willing to work instead of pocketting the
welfare checks then that is in the best intrests of all whether I like it or not

[longnine009]

The solution to the health care problem and immigration is simple. End the so called "war on drugs" and put those agents on the borders.

Here's the problem with the "war on drugs."  The more they win the more the price of drugs goes up. Which increases real crimes--robberies, burglaries, assaults  etc.  We're trading one crime that no one should even care about for another that everyone has to care about.

If adults want to kill themselves with drugs why am I suppose to care? What even gives me or anyone else the right to stop them?  And more importantly why should we have to pay to fix their screw ups? If adults want to take drugs let them, but with one warning: No government, federal state or local will be able to force taxpayers to help them. When they burn out they can just sit on bus bench pointing at cars and babbling  to themselves until they starve to death.

Let the pharmaceutical companies produce the drugs to sell them. At least then, they'll be producing something that actually works. And they can tax it to death and put that money into health care.

Gene I think Ben accidentally spoke the truth: Big banks won't fail as long as the taxpayers are around to give them a welfare check.

[Goose]

Yeah, we all know that banks WITH the taxpayer bails out all sorts of politically corrupt entities. How about N Y City in 1975 when the city was broke. A Munincipal Assistance Corporation was formed to bail the city out of debt. Guess who got the city out of debt? The U S taxpayer!

Michigan took over the city of Encore in 1986. Who paid the bill? The taxpayer!
Bridgeport, Conn filed for bankruptcy in 1988. Who got the city out of bankruptcy? The taxpayer!
Massachusetts took over the Boston suburb of Chelsea in 1992. Who paid? The taxpayer!
Illinois took over East St Louis (ILL) in 1994. Who paid? The taxpayer!
Orange county, Calif. was bankrupt in 1994. Who paid? The taxpayer!
In 1995 Washington DC was bankrupt when congress established a 'financial control board' to "Rescue" the city. Who paid? The taxpayer!
In 2000, Camden, N J was taken over by the state of New Jersey due to bankruptcy. Who paid? The taxpayer!
And the biggest boondoggle? The U S guv'ment's bail out of many banks when the TAXPAYER paid Panama $50 BILLION to 'take' the Panama Canal off of our hands. Have things changed? You ain't seen nothin' yet!! (Jan 20, 2009-?)

[Paint Your Wagon]

Have things changed? You ain't seen nothin' yet!!

Yes things have changed
This time around the taxpayer is brook so who is going to bail the taxpayer
Also this time we are talking a quarter Quadrillion dollars that is three zeroes more the a Trillion which is three zeroes more the a mere Billion
50 Billion is petty cash these days

[longnine009]

Maybe China will bail out the cities and then take them into receivership? The local blundercrats won't care as long they still get their pensions.

Don't laugh too hard. China isn't  going to let their 1.2 trillion dollars sit around and turn into wall paper.   

[scottishmoney]

Maybe China will bail out the cities and then take them into receivership? The local blundercrats won't care as long they still get their pensions.

Don't laugh too hard. China isn't  going to let their 1.2 trillion dollars sit around and turn into wall paper.   

They have the ability to dump their dollars quite easily, even if at a nominal loss to alleviate any further devaluation of their investments.  The Yuan is pegged at a fixed rate to the dollar, but this cannot continue forever.  Otherwise inflation in China will result, and believe me, the plutocrats in China do NOT want that.

[Paint Your Wagon]

China tried to buy the unloading rights in most US ports
American congress or whomever idiit with a veto blocked them
They still do not understand that they OWE china something for the paper dollars of Wallmart
So what are the chinese doing ?
They are buying whatever they can in Africa cause they do not block a single purchase and to them dollars
are still better then nothing

[longnine009]

That's mighty humanist-like  of the Chinese to help out those poor African nations and globally spirited too.  I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Africa just happens to be  rich in oil, gas, coal, iron, lumber, strategic metals and what else, lets see here...oh yeah gold.   

[CoinCrusader42]

What a great thread.

And, I certainly agree with most everything written to date.

For now I would just say that I am in total agreement with Terry and his comments on illegal immigration.  The hordes swarming unchecked across the border each day will be the ruin of the country.

I see examples of it locally every day.

Big business rules, and the country will pay the price.

 

[longnine009]

Paint your wagon: I was joking around awhile back in another thread and mentioned something about  the feds  "core" inflation index was nothing but salt and sawdust.  We'll they better drop the sawdust from it!  Apparently people buy saw that stuff and The wallstreet journal this morning says the price has gone from $25 a ton to $100 a ton since 2006. 

[Paint Your Wagon]

Paint your wagon: I was joking around awhile back in another thread and mentioned something about  the feds  "core" inflation index was nothing but salt and sawdust.  We'll they better drop the sawdust from it!  Apparently people buy saw that stuff and The wallstreet journal this morning says the price has gone from $25 a ton to $100 a ton since 2006. 

You may have to drop salt too
Why not say that core inflation is 2% per definition and the rest is a statistical aberation like white noise in music

[scottishmoney]

The FDIC(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) is predicting that there may be up to 100 or more bank failures in the USA in the next few months, largely due to the subprime crisis.  If the proverbial feces hit the fan, you can wonder whether the FDIC can possibly cover all the losses and payout accounts if there are huge failures.

[Paint Your Wagon]

The FDIC(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) is predicting that there may be up to 100 or more bank failures in the USA in the next few months, largely due to the subprime crisis.  If the proverbial feces hit the fan, you can wonder whether the FDIC can possibly cover all the losses and payout accounts if there are huge failures.

Do not wonder
In my opinion they cannot cause around the world there is a quarter quadrillion dollars lost in my opinion
You know of course that Great Brittain nationalised the brook Rock Bank ?

[scottishmoney]

There is not enough money from the Fed to nationalise banks, not unless they print lots more.  Which they might.

[Paint Your Wagon]

There is not enough money from the Fed to nationalise banks, not unless they print lots more.  Which they might.

Bits and Bytes in a mainframe are money
Why go through the expense of printing ?
I hope they do because deflation scares the hell out of me 

[longnine009]

They'll just invent another  Resolution Trust Corp like they did the last time banks raped the taxpayers.  How fitting then that it should happen on bush lite's  watch. The apples really don't fall far from the tree do they? Hey, maybe brother Neil of the Silverado bank fame can over see that?

Oh yeah just in case no one has heard the "news" a taxpayer bailout is "well actually" really a bailout of the taxpayer well actually. You see it would "actually" cost less to save the retards now then later.

They nationalized  Northern Rock because investors wouldn't pay a "fair" price for it.  Meaning those dirty greedy scoundrels only wanted to pay what it was really worth. 

[Paint Your Wagon]

They nationalized  Northern Rock because investors wouldn't pay a "fair" price for it.  Meaning those dirty greedy scoundrels only wanted to pay what it was really worth.   

I think I read the real worth is something like 0.22 pounds a share for the moment but that the shareholders will be sueing her majesties government for 5.25 pounds a share
They should have let the bank go broke and jailed the management and then fully recompensated the depositors and given new loans to the loanholders at a very low percentage
That probably would have saved years of legal hassles now to come ; unless they pay 5.25 pounds for the virtually worhtless assets
In my opinion and who am I

[longnine009]

Indeed.  Those greedy vultures  won't pay a "save the retards premium" so taxpayers are called upon to pay a "fair price."  Were doing the same thing only we're pretending it's for the happy homeowners and their chill-drins.

Some empire we turned out to be.  The Romans took their retards down to the river and drowned them.  We give them cup cakes and welfare checks.   

[Paint Your Wagon]

A few years before 1990 a Dr Ravi Batra wrote a book The great depression of 1990
In this book he explains why civilisations like Rome blow themselves up eventually
It was scarelly believable allthough he was wrong by at least 18 years

[scottishmoney]

It really don't matter what Ben or anyone else says, because  now Warren Buffett said we are already in recession and had better conduct business in that light.  I find that this old duck is uaually in the 'know'.

Who knows better about the economy than someone whose business is business?  He is in a better position to opin than the rest of these fools.  Bernanke knows the whole card house is falling down, but he cannot be the chicken going around squawking that the sky is falling, or he will just hasten it.  The dollar is going south for a good reason, because the country is bankrupt.  The government created more debt than it can possibly pay, a war it cannot pay for, while consumers bought homes they could not afford, and all kinds of imported garbage from China so now it is payback time.  Meanwhile social security and medicare are running on borrowed time and money and China is rumbling that they may let their dollar denominated govt. bonds etc. at a fire sale price to unload.

All it will take is one big thing, like say Venezuela and Colombia going to war because of big mouth Hugo Chavez battling with President Uribe in Colombia over the FARCing guerillas and Venezuelan oil being cut off from American markets.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Jim Sinclair made a fortune in the 80's gold boom and now has his own goldroalty company

He says This is it

A problem without any practical solution and a quarter quadrillion dollars lost

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Oh is advice is very simple
Get out of any loans get out of any debts get out of anything due to somebody else
Like stoolforums says Sell your house sell your car sell your dog and rent

Second buy gold and silver and put it somewhere you can get it any day

Third if you have shares of companies get physical delivery of the papershares and sign proxies and attornies papers so only your local
trusted broker can sell them and NOBODY can short them
This last is now illigal in Belgium ( that is to own paper bonds or shares from now on ) only electronic is allowed so you cannot give it to your
children without paying inheritance tax

[longnine009]

It really don't matter what Ben or anyone else says, because  now Warren Buffett said we are already in recession and had better conduct business in that light.  I find that this old duck is uaually in the 'know'.

I read about one investor who used to travel the country in the back of freight trains. He'd stop off in big cities and go around checking dumpsters at fast food dives. The assumption being that if times are still good, people will still waste.  So it was a good sign if he found half eaten hamburgers in the dumpsters. I guess today he might have to fight with someone inside the dumpster. 

But I think Warren Buffett's secret is that there is no secret. He just uses plain old common sense and a lot of discipline. Too many stocks are discounted so far into the future they're  having an outer body experience somewhere  in another dimension. He won't have anything to do with such garbage. That what makes him look like a genius--he won't pay the  hallucination premium.  BTW, Warren Buffett was buying silver decades ago, when they were calling it a base metal.  Bet they're not laughing at the Old Duck now.   

But as usual he's probably right about us being in a recession now.  I went to the mall today, the biggest one we have here, to pick up a monitor. It was pretty deserted compared to the last time I was there which was about 15 years ago. The reason I never went back until now was because it was a freaking zoo back then with wall to wall people. There were people there today, but nothing like it once was.

[dharmaeye]

Jim Sinclair made a fortune in the 80's gold boom and now has his own goldroalty company

He says This is it

A problem without any practical solution and a quarter quadrillion dollars lost

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Oh is advice is very simple
Get out of any loans get out of any debts get out of anything due to somebody else
Like stoolforums says Sell your house sell your car sell your dog and rent

Second buy gold and silver and put it somewhere you can get it any day

Third if you have shares of companies get physical delivery of the papershares and sign proxies and attornies papers so only your local
trusted broker can sell them and NOBODY can short them
This last is now illigal in Belgium ( that is to own paper bonds or shares from now on ) only electronic is allowed so you cannot give it to your
children without paying inheritance tax

Hey I don't remember you being so vocal on the digger at Capitalstool.com
Agree, also physical can be moved to children...........history has taught us not to trust government - actually the USA constitution was an attempt to make people more important and limit government - since 1913 it has been gradually destroyed by those who swore upon taking office to uphold it. Personally have a holding of Canroys (Canadian Royalty Trust -oil and gas) closest thing to owning oil and gas literally. Eventually have to sell as oil gets really scarce and nationalization more likely and then into more physcial.

[Paint Your Wagon]

There are copycats and shills and all kind of people on capitalstool

Maxximizer my good friend got banned forever for saying sometimes volume is THE most important part and DOC did not like that and banned him
Well most times I pick the day I sell on volume or momentum
Seven of Eleven left cause people with private airplanes can buy their own advise as far as we are concerned (or give as good as they get)
I got plagiarised on another forum ; I spend 20 hours a week analysing gold and gold shares and sombody put a post of mine under his own name on traders talk three weeks ago
The coin guy bragged about a coin given to his ancestors by a president of the US and when I challenged him he backpedalled
Here we are amongst friends
So I can speak my mind without being banned or without being copied

The reason capitalstool gold forum is as good as dead is because in the good days three four years back DOC banned everybody he did not like without comeback
I think it hurts a lot he lost Marky Mark 

I have started a European goldcoin photogallery here
If there is enough people intrested we could try lessons in basic charting and indicators but for the moment my wife is redecorating the house and I am still recuperating from buying a new computer system 

[dharmaeye]

Heres the English version of Petch's Gold forecast that you posted.
This actually is very scary as to what would be going on to cause the forcasted gold blast up.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9619.htm

[Paint Your Wagon]

I hope it is all chinese housewoman wanting a gold ring
Otherwise it is the US$ going to parity with the Zimbabwe dollar

[scottishmoney]

I hope it is all chinese housewoman wanting a gold ring
Otherwise it is the US$ going to parity with the Zimbabwe dollar

From the looks of things around here, I would venture to say your second guess is accurate.

Zimbabwe and the USA have very capable people managing the economy, there really is not inflation, it is all imaginary.

[Paint Your Wagon]

Well I know nearly nobody accepts the same definition of inflation which is very handy to use any figure one likes
Rising money supply or rising prices or rising salaries etc
This week I was astounded that some say that a debt which will never be paid back ( definition of a country getting into debt cause they will allways roll it over )
That debt should be categorised as an equity
Blimey we used to say if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle

[longnine009]

That debt should be categorised as an equity

They can do better than that. They can "monetize" debt and call it money. But if I were to "monetize" a  credit card receipt in my wallet for $20 and then try to spent it I'm pretty sure I'd be arrested.